The USD/JPY pair has encountered strong resistance at 146.50, which coincides with the 23.6% retracement level. Breaking this resistance and holding above it opens the path to 148.82 and to the 38.2% retracement level, which coincides with the peak of August 15 (149.38). The Marlin oscillator has crossed above the zero line, entering an upward trend. The probability of the price moving above 146.50 is around 55%.
If the price reverses from the 146.50 level downward, Marlin will return to the negative area, and the price will once again attempt to attack the intermediate level of 143.60. Success would open the path to the target range of 139.70-140.27.
On the four-hour chart, the price has broken above, and held above, both indicator lines. Marlin is in the positive area. The overall situation is bullish, but the resistance at 146.50 is limiting further upward potential. Therefore, if the price holds below the MACD line (145.50), it could gather momentum for a new attempt to break through 143.60.
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