West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil has seen a slight price increase in the last hour of trading, approaching the round level of $77.00. However, this growth is not accompanied by confident prospects due to the uncertainty surrounding the ongoing war in the Middle East.
Recent news reported that Iran stated on Monday there were no negotiations with the U.S. or plans for meetings. This statement contradicts U.S. President Donald Trump's remarks over the weekend about the possible resumption of negotiations as the reason for canceling attacks. Furthermore, unconfirmed reports of drones attacking American facilities in Kuwait diminish hopes for a potential peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran, prompting traders to factor in geopolitical risks that support oil prices.
Additionally, Mohsen Rezaee, a senior military advisor to Iran's Supreme Leader, emphasized that Tehran would not allow any passage through this vital waterway except for that established by the Islamic Republic. He also warned that American ships and military forces could face serious risks and losses if the standoff over this strategically important waterway continues. The naval blockade of Saudi Arabia carried out by Iran-backed Houthi rebels also heightens concerns about global energy supply.
Ben Picton from Rabobank describes the ongoing tension in the Strait of Hormuz as a "Groundhog Day" for markets, emphasizing that "later in the week, strikes typically resume, oil prices rise, stocks are sold off, and bond yields increase." He warns that "all signs point to this happening this week," although the market currently reflects a sense of "strikes following strikes," as investors fear a repeat of the usual pattern of escalating conflict and risk.
These events largely overshadow the recent OPEC+ decision to increase production made on Sunday and provide support for oil prices. Nevertheless, the lack of active follow-through buying necessitates caution before opening new bullish positions, especially since the current pullback from the weekly low is likely a closure of sales. Meanwhile, oscillators on the hourly chart are negative.
On the daily chart, the signals are mixed, and the relative strength index is negative, indicating a bearish advantage. However, it is worth noting that as long as prices are trading above the 200-day SMA, they are not ready to fall in the long term. Nonetheless, bulls need to overcome the 20-day SMA for further growth.
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